A BMJ study "Derivation and validation of QRISK, a new cardiovascular disease risk score for the United Kingdom: prospective open cohort study" (BMJ Online First) that tracked 1.28 million healthy adults aged 35-74 over a period of 12 years and used GP records from 318 practices found that the traditional score over- estimated cardiovascular disease risk by 35%.
It suggests the current estimates of the number of UK adults at risk of cardiovascular disease are 1.5 million too high.
The study found that white middle-aged men had a lower risk than previously thought and women from poorer backgrounds had a significantly higher risk. It also found that 1 in 3 women, (not 1 in 4 as previously thought ) in their 60s are at risk of heart disease. This has raised the concern of " potentially missing the right people for treatment" and the possibility of over-prescription of statins to many patients who do not need it.
The authors argued that over-predicted estimates of heart disease were derived from the out-dated American model which involves a score based on smoking, blood pressure and cholesterol, along with age and sex, but the the new score used by the BMJ study also takes into account social deprivation, genetic factors and weight, reducing estimates. Read more...
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